Capital Plan Development Task Force Update #17

The Capital Plan Development Task Force met on May 14.

The task force further discussed a report on high-level operational cost forecasting for the three models for the year 2031/32. Members understood the report is intended to provide an order of magnitude of the potential operating costs of each model based on the programs and services to be delivered. The report is not an operating budget, and rather is directional for the purposes of comparison and evaluation of the models. The report demonstrates a difference of about $8 million in costs between a One Site model and the Two Acute Sites model. The forecasts assume that expenses increase in proportion to projected activity growth (more beds, more tests, more visits). The report identified very few economy of scale efficiencies are expected in the Two Acute Sites model. The One Site model and, in some cases, the Inpatient Site/Outpatient Site model include expectations for economy of scale efficiencies as a result of service consolidation to one site.

The task force also reviewed Ministry of Finance projections on population growth and aging and heard that Muskoka’s population growth and aging are less than the provincial averages. Disease prevalence data was also considered as well as projections showing which programs will have the fastest demand increases based on the potential implications of the projected population changes.

The task force revisited the activity projections report also based on a 2031/32 planning horizon. Accounting for growth, and with the inclusion of proposed stroke rehabilitation beds, the number of beds are projected to increase to 157 from the current 96 across MAHC sites. The report further forecasted Emergency Dept. visits to grow by 13%, surgeries and scopes to increase by 28%, diagnostic exams to increase by 32% (including a proposed MRI), and ambulatory visits to go up about 12%. The space required to manage the projected activity while meeting various standards was further reviewed and the capital cost was not determined to be a differencing factor between models at this time.

The next task force meeting is May 28, 2018.